From south-bay-birds-bounces+south-bay-birds-archive=[[email protected]] Wed Dec 11 10:35:50 2002 Received: from www.plaidworks.com (localhost [127.0.0.1]) by plaidworks.com (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id gBBIXCoO013734 for <[[email protected]]>; Wed, 11 Dec 2002 10:33:13 -0800 (PST) Received: from rtjones.nas.nasa.gov (rtjones.nas.nasa.gov [129.99.19.30]) by plaidworks.com (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id gBBIWbwO013694 for <[[email protected]]>; Wed, 11 Dec 2002 10:32:37 -0800 (PST) Received: (from mrogers@localhost) by rtjones.nas.nasa.gov (SGI-8.9.3/8.9.3/NAS 8.9.3-5n) id KAA49303; Wed, 11 Dec 2002 10:32:36 -0800 (PST) Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2002 10:32:36 -0800 (PST) From: "Dr. Michael M. Rogers" <[[email protected]]> Message-Id: <[[email protected]]> To: Steve Sosensky <[[email protected]]> Subject: Re: [SBB] Santa Clara Co. List, November cc: [[email protected]] X-BeenThere: [[email protected]] X-Mailman-Version: 2.1b4+ Precedence: list List-Unsubscribe: , List-Id: South Bay Birding List-Post: List-Help: List-Subscribe: , Sender: south-bay-birds-bounces+south-bay-birds-archive=[[email protected]] Errors-To: south-bay-birds-bounces+south-bay-birds-archive=[[email protected]] Steve, The chance of seeing Black Rails has been greatly reduced over the past several winters for a few reasons. 1) The tides just aren't that high lately. Whether this is part of a long term cycle (moon and sun further away and generating less tidal pull) or due to local conditions I am not sure. Weather plays a huge role. For instance, the best tide a week ago was on 3 Dec (listed as 9.55, but reaching a third of the way into the middle "S" on the post at the corner), not 4 Dec (listed as 9.64 but only making it up to about an inch below the bottom of the "S"). Low pressure systems (bad weather) increase the water height. Wind direction also has an impact. Presumably how wet the vegetation is from previous high tides or rain does as well. 2) The viewing area has been pushed back. Instead of being able to stand on logs right in the bushes at the edge of the marsh people are a few feet further back behind a chain at ground level. Thus it is hard to see the spots under the bushes where the rails hide. 3) There are less people looking these days, probably because the chance of success has gone down. 4) There may be fewer rails. So far no Black Rails have been reliably reported in 2002, or from late in 2001. The last credible report I am aware of is a single bird on 8 Feb 2001. Unless the weather is awful, chances are not good that the 19-20 Dec tides (listed as 8.95ft and 8.96ft) will produce much. Hopefully the 31 Dec to 2 Jan tides will do better, but if recent experience is a guide we will need bad weather to help us. Mike Rogers _______________________________________________ Do not post admin requests to the list. They will be ignored. south-bay-birds mailing list ([[email protected]]) Help/Unsubscribe/Update your Subscription: http://www.plaidworks.com/mailman/options/south-bay-birds/south-bay-birds-archive%40plaidworks.com This email sent to [[email protected]]